Every call since 1999.
Live from Nov 11, 2026, published at each close. Before that, backtested on the same rule.
| A year | Worst fall | $10,000 became | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fallow TQQQ | 31.0% | −44% | $17.5M |
| Fallow QQQ | 14.4% | −38% | $416k |
| QQQ buy & hold | 10.5% | −83% | $161k |
Hypothetical, Mar 10, 1999 to Nov 11, 2026. TQQQ before February 2010 is three times QQQ's daily return less financing and fees; TLT before July 2002 is a 20-year bond rebuilt from yields. Switches sell after hours at the close and buy at the next open, with 5bp per switch.
$10,000 in March 1999
hypothetical, log scaleLive
Each evening's signal exactly as it was published.
Each evening
Logged every trading day since Nov 11, 2026. A public copy is committed each evening at github.com/WillPerryyy/fallow-record, so the timestamps can be checked independently.
| Close | Position | Switch | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | TLT | Nov 11, 9:45 PM EST manual test run |
Each month
The first month's figures appear after the first full session following Nov 11, 2026.
The falls
How far each one sat below its previous high, at each month-end. TQQQ held throughout is shown for scale.
Drawdown from peak
hypothetical, month-endYear by year
Calendar-year returns. The position calendar shows which months were spent in TQQQ.
| Year | Fallow TQQQ | Fallow QQQ | QQQ buy & hold | TQQQ buy & hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026to date | −8.3% | −1.2% | +12.8% | +15.3% |
| 2025 | +14.7% | +7.1% | +20.8% | +34.4% |
| 2024 | +52.1% | +26.2% | +25.6% | +58.3% |
| 2023 | +112.1% | +43.5% | +54.9% | +198.0% |
| 2022 | −31.2% | −31.2% | −32.6% | −79.1% |
| 2021 | +78.5% | +26.4% | +27.4% | +83.0% |
| 2020 | +226.1% | +60.5% | +48.4% | +110.0% |
| 2019 | +84.8% | +28.4% | +39.0% | +133.8% |
| 2018 | +5.5% | +8.3% | −0.1% | −19.8% |
| 2017 | +70.9% | +22.6% | +32.7% | +118.1% |
| 2016 | +37.4% | +18.8% | +7.1% | +11.4% |
| 2015 | −13.9% | −1.4% | +9.4% | +17.2% |
| 2014 | +15.7% | +9.3% | +19.2% | +57.1% |
| 2013 | +78.3% | +20.7% | +36.6% | +139.7% |
| 2012 | +52.3% | +18.1% | +18.1% | +52.3% |
| 2011 | +10.1% | +22.0% | +3.5% | −8.1% |
| 2010 | +72.0% | +28.0% | +20.1% | +52.2% |
| 2009 | +29.2% | −3.2% | +54.7% | +198.0% |
| 2008 | −15.8% | +12.1% | −41.7% | −88.4% |
| 2007 | +37.2% | +18.2% | +19.0% | +37.5% |
| 2006 | +44.9% | +17.8% | +7.1% | +2.2% |
| 2005 | −26.4% | −4.4% | +1.6% | −8.3% |
| 2004 | +10.9% | +8.3% | +10.5% | +18.0% |
| 2003 | +118.5% | +43.7% | +49.7% | +168.9% |
| 2002 | +20.8% | +20.8% | −37.4% | −86.1% |
| 2001 | +5.6% | +5.6% | −33.3% | −88.8% |
| 2000 | +23.8% | +23.8% | −36.1% | −91.7% |
| 1999from March | −9.7% | −9.7% | +79.0% | +311.3% |
Every switch
114 switches, backtested before Nov 11, 2026 and live after. The 41-year study, back to 1985, is in the whitepaper.
| Signal date | Switched to | Sessions | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | TLT | 5 so far | −0.8% |
| 2026-08-27 | TQQQ | 48 | −14.4% |
| 2026-06-08 | TLT | 56 | −1.5% |
| 2026-04-30 | TQQQ | 26 | +19.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | TLT | 15 | −1.2% |
| 2025-05-12 | TQQQ | 228 | +47.8% |
| 2025-03-07 | TLT | 45 | −4.7% |
| 2025-02-06 | TQQQ | 20 | −21.9% |
| 2025-01-28 | TLT | 7 | +1.9% |
| 2025-01-22 | TQQQ | 4 | −4.5% |
| 2024-12-31 | TLT | 13 | −0.4% |
| 2024-11-21 | TQQQ | 26 | +2.2% |
| 2024-11-18 | TLT | 3 | −0.6% |
| 2024-10-02 | TQQQ | 33 | +10.2% |
| 2024-07-23 | TLT | 50 | +6.5% |
| 2024-05-14 | TQQQ | 47 | +19.3% |
| 2024-04-29 | TLT | 11 | +3.1% |
| 2024-03-22 | TQQQ | 25 | −9.1% |
| 2024-03-11 | TLT | 9 | −1.2% |
| 2024-02-28 | TQQQ | 8 | −1.3% |
| 2024-02-23 | TLT | 3 | −0.6% |
| 2023-04-05 | TQQQ | 222 | +127.7% |
| 2021-12-08 | TLT | 332 | −25.2% |
| 2021-04-01 | TQQQ | 174 | +72.8% |
| 2021-03-16 | TLT | 12 | +1.8% |
| 2020-10-05 | TQQQ | 111 | +40.2% |
| 2020-09-28 | TLT | 5 | −3.1% |
| 2020-05-06 | TQQQ | 100 | +80.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | TLT | 52 | +8.7% |
| 2019-09-04 | TQQQ | 117 | +71.0% |
| 2019-08-19 | TLT | 11 | +1.6% |
| 2019-06-12 | TQQQ | 47 | +6.1% |
| 2019-06-10 | TLT | 2 | +0.1% |
| 2019-02-01 | TQQQ | 88 | +25.3% |
| 2018-10-11 | TLT | 76 | +6.7% |
| 2018-05-11 | TQQQ | 106 | −4.2% |
| 2018-02-05 | TLT | 67 | −0.4% |
| 2017-12-14 | TQQQ | 34 | +2.2% |
| 2017-12-12 | TLT | 2 | +0.8% |
| 2017-11-28 | TQQQ | 10 | −1.8% |
| 2017-11-09 | TLT | 12 | +1.6% |
| 2017-09-18 | TQQQ | 38 | +15.9% |
| 2017-08-18 | TLT | 20 | −0.4% |
| 2017-07-31 | TQQQ | 14 | −5.8% |
| 2017-06-20 | TLT | 28 | −2.3% |
| 2017-06-16 | TQQQ | 2 | −0.4% |
| 2017-06-12 | TLT | 4 | +1.8% |
| 2016-07-19 | TQQQ | 226 | +83.3% |
| 2016-07-11 | TLT | 6 | −1.0% |
| 2016-03-08 | TQQQ | 86 | +17.7% |
| 2016-01-08 | TLT | 40 | +6.9% |
| 2016-01-06 | TQQQ | 2 | −5.5% |
| 2015-12-30 | TLT | 4 | +1.6% |
| 2015-10-27 | TQQQ | 44 | −0.8% |
| 2015-10-23 | TLT | 2 | +0.3% |
| 2015-10-08 | TQQQ | 11 | +19.4% |
| 2015-08-24 | TLT | 32 | −1.7% |
| 2015-07-29 | TQQQ | 18 | −31.6% |
| 2015-07-14 | TLT | 11 | +3.9% |
| 2015-05-19 | TQQQ | 38 | +0.1% |
| 2015-05-11 | TLT | 6 | −0.6% |
| 2015-02-23 | TQQQ | 54 | −1.2% |
| 2015-01-23 | TLT | 20 | −4.9% |
| 2015-01-21 | TQQQ | 2 | +4.9% |
| 2014-12-19 | TLT | 20 | +6.5% |
| 2014-11-11 | TQQQ | 27 | +7.5% |
| 2014-10-06 | TLT | 26 | +0.5% |
| 2014-05-12 | TQQQ | 102 | +35.9% |
| 2014-04-07 | TLT | 24 | +1.8% |
| 2014-03-05 | TQQQ | 23 | −17.8% |
| 2014-01-27 | TLT | 26 | +1.1% |
| 2013-11-01 | TQQQ | 57 | +9.9% |
| 2013-10-21 | TLT | 9 | −1.1% |
| 2013-07-09 | TQQQ | 73 | +42.0% |
| 2013-06-26 | TLT | 8 | −1.8% |
| 2013-05-09 | TQQQ | 33 | −7.7% |
| 2013-04-24 | TLT | 11 | −1.7% |
| 2013-01-17 | TQQQ | 66 | +9.9% |
| 2013-01-03 | TLT | 10 | +1.2% |
| 2011-12-23 | TQQQ | 256 | +62.4% |
| 2011-12-21 | TLT | 2 | −1.5% |
| 2011-12-19 | TQQQ | 2 | −0.4% |
| 2011-11-10 | TLT | 26 | +7.1% |
| 2011-11-08 | TQQQ | 2 | −5.3% |
| 2011-07-28 | TLT | 72 | +20.8% |
| 2011-07-26 | TQQQ | 2 | −5.4% |
| 2011-06-22 | TLT | 23 | −1.4% |
| 2010-07-29 | TQQQ | 227 | +68.4% |
| 2010-05-07 | TLT | 57 | +6.8% |
| 2009-09-01 | TQQQ | 171 | +48.6% |
| 2008-09-05 | TLT | 249 | +5.1% |
| 2008-07-28 | TQQQ | 28 | −9.7% |
| 2008-06-27 | TLT | 20 | −1.2% |
| 2008-05-16 | TQQQ | 29 | −26.1% |
| 2007-10-22 | TLT | 143 | +4.5% |
| 2007-09-28 | TQQQ | 16 | +8.3% |
| 2007-08-01 | TLT | 41 | +2.1% |
| 2007-03-28 | TQQQ | 87 | +23.7% |
| 2007-02-28 | TLT | 20 | −1.9% |
| 2006-08-28 | TQQQ | 125 | +30.3% |
| 2006-05-26 | TLT | 64 | +5.1% |
| 2006-05-17 | TQQQ | 7 | −0.5% |
| 2006-05-12 | TLT | 3 | +0.5% |
| 2006-03-10 | TQQQ | 44 | −6.6% |
| 2006-02-23 | TLT | 11 | −3.2% |
| 2006-02-21 | TQQQ | 2 | +2.6% |
| 2006-01-18 | TLT | 23 | −1.1% |
| 2005-11-17 | TQQQ | 40 | +3.4% |
| 2005-10-25 | TLT | 17 | +1.6% |
| 2005-05-12 | TQQQ | 115 | +20.6% |
| 2005-04-22 | TLT | 14 | +1.2% |
| 2004-08-19 | TQQQ | 170 | +7.3% |
| 2004-08-09 | TLT | 8 | +0.4% |
| 2003-05-23 | TQQQ | 304 | +32.7% |