Beat the market without watching it.
Four or five trades a year. One email after each close tells you when.
| A year | Worst fall | $10,000 became | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fallow TQQQ | 31.0% | −44% | $17.5M |
| Nasdaq-100 | 10.5% | −83% | $161k |
| S&P 500 | 8.5% | −55% | $95k |
Hypothetical, March 1999 to Nov 11, 2026. TQQQ before 2010 is rebuilt from QQQ.
$10,000 in March 1999
hypothetical, log scaleThe Nasdaq-100 is QQQ and the S&P 500 is SPY, both held throughout. Each switch sells after hours at the close and buys at the next open, less costs.
How it works
The signal holds TQQQ or a long Treasury fund. When it switches, you get an email and make two trades.
- 4:10pmAn email tells you whether anything changes. Most evenings it says hold.
- That eveningIf it says switch, sell what you hold in after-hours trading.
- Next morningBuy the other fund at the open. Nothing more until the next switch.
Thu, Aug 27, 4:09pm
Switch to TQQQ
Tonight, after hours: sell TLT.
Tomorrow, at the open: buy TQQQ.
An example from a backtested switch, before the live record began.
Plans
Both get the same signal. Members get it the evening it happens.
Free
$0
- The signal a week late, every Sunday
- The full backtest, explainers and crash replays
Last Sunday: TQQQ as of Oct 30
Read the Sunday notesMember
$199 a year
or $24 a month
- The signal by email at each close, in time to trade that evening
- Each gate open or shut, with a warning when one could flip
- The live record, a monthly research note and CSV downloads
The first 100 annual members pay $149 a year for as long as they stay.
Compare plansAgainst a typical trading-signal service
| Typical service | Fallow TQQQ | |
|---|---|---|
| How often | Daily or intraday | Four or five switches a year. Most evenings say hold. |
| Time it takes | Watching the market | Reading one email after 4pm |
| The record | Backtests and screenshots | Each evening's signal goes to a public GitHub repo at the close, with its time |
| Account | Margin or options approval | Any brokerage account or IRA that allows leveraged ETFs |
The record
All figures here are hypothetical backtests unless marked live.
Through the big Nasdaq-100 declines
41-year study| Decline | Nasdaq-100 | TQQQ held | Fallow TQQQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 crash 1987-10 to 1987-10 | −40% | −83% | +9% |
| Dot-com bust 2000-03 to 2002-10 | −83% | −100% | +57% |
| Financial crisis 2007-10 to 2008-11 | −53% | −94% | −20% |
| COVID crash 2020-02 to 2020-03 | −29% | −68% | +4% |
| 2022 bear market 2021-12 to 2022-11 | −35% | −80% | −32% |
5 of the 10 declines since 1985. Across all 10 it lost money in 6 and did worse than the index in 2. See all 10, or replay them day by day.
Could the backtest be a fluke?
About 6,000 versions of the rule were tested before settling on this one, so a good backtest on its own proves little. These are the questions worth asking.
- What if the settings had been chosen without hindsight?
- Each January from 1996, the settings were re-picked using only the years before, then traded blind for the year ahead.
- 31.3% a yearworst fall −64%
- Was there ever a bad decade?
- Every 10-year period since 1985, starting from each month-end (374 in all), beat the Nasdaq-100. The weakest still made 17.8% a year.
- 374 of 374ahead of the Nasdaq-100
- Does it work on the real fund?
- TQQQ has traded since 2010. Using its actual prices only, with nothing rebuilt:
- 43.0% a yearworst fall −38%
- How often does it have a losing year?
- Since 1985, 8 of 42 calendar years ended down.
- 8 of 42worst year −29%
Treat the blind-picked 31% as the estimate. Live since Nov 11, 2026, with every signal published to a public repo each evening. Whitepaper